Harry Kolb Talks About Market Trends: a Santa Barbara Real Estate Agent

 

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Market Trends

Harry Kolb’s of Sotheby’s International Realty Reviews Recent Trends of Montecito Estates over $5 Million in his Newsletter “The Little Woods”.
 
Harry shares a sampling of articles to give you additional background on Estate Market Trends.

 

"The Little Woods"
CURRENT ISSUE:
2006 General Market Trends

by Harry Kolb
Sotheby's International Realty

Sales of homes priced at $5 million and greater were on the rise in 2006.

At least 10 buyers throughout the country paid $28 million or more for high-end residences last year.

Strong corporate profits, good news on Wall Street and a global commodities boom helped grow fortunes and sparked a surge of demand for trophy homes.

The U.S.'s 2006 sales of homes priced at $5 million and above were up about 11% over 2005.

Los Angeles

Mid market home sales skidding but are now stabilizing. Home sales are down sharply from last year's pace. Prices, which continue to inch upward.

Prices at the high end of the market appear to have peaked, but demand is still fairly strong. The most expensive home on the market in the LA area is Rancho San José de Buenos Ayres has put this 3.2-acre estate in Bel Air up for sale.

The property has a main residence and five guest facilities.
Price: $43 million.
Bedrooms: 36 combined.
Bathrooms: 34 combined.
Size: 18,000 square feet.

Features: Hand-painted murals; onyx marble floors; double master suite, each with its own sitting room; sunken tennis court; pool and pool house; city and ocean views.


Manhattan

Demand for housing continues to remain strong, as growth in the City's economy has strengthened. Unemployment recently reached a record low, and job growth in 2006 will be at its highest level since 2000. Rates on 30-year mortgages have fallen over half a percent since July. All of these factors should keep demand strong in the months to come, and should keep prices stable even with the recent upturn in inventory.

Sky-high prices for apartments like Sting's on Central Park West, yours for $24 million, drive up the average price in Manhattan.

Despite a downturn in the housing market nationwide, Manhattan apartment prices rose 6% in 2006 - to a record average of $1.295 million.

The boom that began the decade with 20% annual sales price hikes has definitely ended. But locally, a bust hasn't followed.

During the final three months of the year, the Manhattan market softened - as it normally does during the holidays. Fourth-quarter sales prices fell 5% from the third-quarter average.

But the number of transactions closed - which also usually slides in the fourth quarter - surged by 15.5% from the third quarter, partly because falling mortgage rates encouraged potential buyers to get off the sidelines.

Other data showed the number of Manhattan apartments available for sale in the fourth quarter fell 22.2% from the third quarter. That's because sellers who tested the market with unrealistically high asking prices couldn't find buyers, and took their apartments off the market.

The average price per square foot in Manhattan rose to $1,050, topping $979 in the fourth quarter a year ago and setting a new high.


The Hamptons

During the housing boom, prices for second homes in vacation hot spots across the U.S. soared. But now, as the real-estate market slows, price tags in some areas are declining. Vacation locales in all price ranges are experiencing a slowdown -- from enclaves like Lake Tahoe in California and Nevada and the Hamptons in New York, to more modestly priced locations like the Jersey Shore and Panama City, Fla. Sales dropped 35% in the first half of this year in Lake Tahoe, 14% in Southampton, N.Y., and 19% in East Hampton, N.Y. Median prices declined 10% in June from the year before in the more modestly priced Panama City, Fla., and dropped 10% to 15% this spring and summer from the same period a year before in Ocean City, N.J.

After a five-year period during which the value of many homes in the Hamptons ballooned anywhere from 30% to more than 120%, economic reality seems to be catching up with New York's most prestigious summer playground.

Listings, including both existing houses and new homes built on speculation, are up about 10% to 20% from a year ago, with the most sluggishness in the $1.5 million to $5 million range. Despite the buildup in inventories, prices are holding up well, with the average sale price up roughly 10% from last year. The most robust interest centers on the lower-priced homes, notably those under $1 million. If they're priced right, they go very fast. Homes priced at more than $5 million, are also doing quite well.


Florida

Florida has been hit hard lately. Not by hurricanes-but by sliding home sales and prices in this former hot market for speculators. Homes in the $10 million-plus category, however, seem to be weathering the storm.

Existing single-family home sales in Florida were down 30% in November, 2006, from the previous November, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. The statewide existing-home median price fell 3%, to $242,500 in November, 2006, from $250,400 a year earlier.

These statistics place Florida among the worst-affected by the national housing market correction.  The Miami area, with a 2006 estimated decline of 9.16%, is expected to see the second-worst 2007 price drop out of all the country's metro areas.

Realtors in the upper end however, never worry about gloomy statistics or predictions. Florida's highly desirable Gold Coast-the region running along the eastern shoreline from Palm Beach to Miami-had six $10 million-plus home sales in 2006.

The $13 million-and-above category began heating up in the last quarter.

With the stock market picking up, the wealthy and well-invested are reaping sizable profits and putting that into real estate. Buyers in the super luxury home class last year included Europeans (Russian and English) motivated by the weak dollar and Americans looking to "trade up" to a fancier house.


Palm Beach

Fewer sales last year surprises no one. But average annual percentages were up by 5.2 percent, from 25.6 percent to 30.8 percent last year.

The number of sales dropped from 167 to 101, but sales prices did not drop.

The town's average "current sales price" dropped by $280,878, which was caused by fewer sales of more than $15 million: eight in 2005 versus only two in 2006.

The last four months of 2006 shows the market was getting stronger.

There were twice as many sales in 2005 vs. 2006 in the category of $10 million to $15 million.

$5 million to $10 million, 35 versus 18;
$10 million to $15 million, four versus eight;
$15 million to $20 million, three versus two.

A handful of homes sold for more than $20 million in 2005, but few tipped the scale last year.  The average current sales price for 2005 was $4.66 million, compared to $4.38 million last year.


The most expensive homes now available

Wall Street bonuses have set another new record this year, reaching $23.9 billion.

The priciest home currently for sale in the world is the $139 million Updown Court in Windlesham, England. The home, near Windsor Castle, boasts 103 rooms, five pools and a heated marble driveway.

The most expensive home ever sold was a London mansion, bought by a steel magnate in 2004. The home sold for $125 million.

A Saudi Prince's Aspen, Colo., retreat tops the list for American homes at $135 million. The highest priced home ever in the US.

Donald Trump's Palm Beach French Regency-style estate, which is undergoing the final stages of a massive renovation, includes 475 feet of waterfront, an 18-bedroom mansion, eight-car garage, conservatory, carriage house, guest house and pool house. Priced at $125 million.

A waterfront home in Istanbul is available for $100 million.

Domestically, a $100 million waterfront estate with views of Lake Tahoe is also on the market.

The Portabello Estate in Corona Del Mar is listed at $75 million.

Three Ponds Farm, a $75 million Bridgehampton, N.Y., estate set on 60 waterfront acres with an 18-hole golf course that has lingered on the market for years, is still up for sale.

So is the $70 million triplex that tops off Manhattan's Pierre Hotel.

An oceanfront estate in Corona del Mar, a modern masterpiece designed like a nautilus shell is priced at $75 million.

A San Francisco mansion clad in French limestone is asking $65 million, twice what it sold for two years ago.

A Malibu estate at a mere $65 million.

Robert Taylor Ranch in Brentwood is priced at $60 million.

And Finally

-Luxury Homeowners looking to purchase additional residences in the next two years-

In its latest consumer-trend study, Architectural Digest has united with Sotheby's International Realty Affiliates, Inc. to find that affluent homeowners are planning to acquire additional residences in the near future. The study, "Seeking a Luxury Lifestyle," discovers that one in three Architectural Digest subscribers intend to acquire a secondary/additional home in the next two years. The study further reveals:

* Of those Architectural Digest subscribers who already own three or more homes, 49 percent plan to acquire an additional home within two years;

* Of those who already own a second home, 35 percent plan to acquire a third home within two years;

* In an indication that young affluent consumers are in the market for second homes, 44 percent of those under age 45 stated that they may acquire a second home in the near future.

 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 

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Harry Kolb

 

Sotheby’s International Realty®
1106 Coast Village Road, Suite D
Montecito, CA 93108
Telephone: 805.565.8633 or 805.969.0248

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